Calculator
Closing Line Value Calculator
Estimate simple moneyline CLV from immutable confirmed odds and the selected closing American odds.
Formula used
CLV = ((selected closing break-even probability x confirmed decimal odds) - 1) x 100.
Worked example
Confirmed +120 and a selected close of +100 produces a 50.00% closing break-even probability and +10.00% CLV.
When this calculator helps
Use this calculator when you have the immutable American odds recorded for one selected moneyline outcome and a qualified closing American price for that same outcome. It is useful for checking whether the confirmed price was more or less favorable than the closing price under PickProof's simple selected-price moneyline measure.
Keep CLV separate from the pick result. A confirmed +120 can beat a +100 close and still lose the event. Conversely, a winning pick can record negative CLV if the closing market offered a better price on the same outcome.
Understanding the result
The result compares the price recorded at confirmation with the selected outcome price at close. Positive CLV means the confirmed price was more favorable under this price-based measure; negative CLV means it was less favorable.
The closing break-even probability translates the selected closing price into a common probability scale. CLV then asks what expected return the immutable confirmed decimal price would have at that closing break-even probability. Positive output means the confirmed price was better under this comparison; negative output means it was worse.
For spread and total picks, do not enter only a point difference. PickProof uses market, point, price, and push-aware context because a whole-number line can create a push state that a half-number line does not.
Before relying on the output
- Same selected outcome at confirmation and close
- Qualified closing capture rather than a later guess
- Moneyline price comparison only for this public form
Common mistakes
- Using the opposite side closing price in place of the selected outcome price.
- Treating a spread or total point change as if it were identical to a moneyline price change.
- Assuming positive CLV guarantees a winning pick or short-term profit.
Limitations
- This public calculator is the simple selected-price moneyline measure.
- Spread and total CLV uses PickProof's market, point, and push model. It is not line-difference arithmetic.
- A missing or unreliable closing capture cannot be inferred from the final score.
Frequently asked questions
Can CLV be negative on a winning pick?
Yes. Pick grading and price quality measure different things. A pick can win while recording negative CLV.
Does positive CLV guarantee profit?
No. CLV describes the confirmed price relative to a closing reference and does not guarantee any individual result or future return.
Related PickProof resources
Track the complete record
Use PickProof to record confirmed picks, preserve verification receipts, and review units, ROI, and eligible public history from the underlying pick ledger. Read the methodology to see how the product separates immutable confirmation, grading, and closing data.
Open PickProofThese calculators are informational recordkeeping tools. They do not place wagers, accept deposits, pay winnings, provide betting credits, or guarantee performance. Odds, scores, grading, line movement, CLV, ROI, and records may be delayed, incomplete, corrected, or unavailable. Verify independently before using information outside PickProof.